FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

45 – 16.57

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

77 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.1 ±12.1

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 19.97Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 21.03Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10181ProtoWarriors

Season APEX 62Event APEX 4Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.1 ±13.9

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 4Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 9.95Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9542Technodogs

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 2.62Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5110, 4983, 10181

/ 100 compat

Projected

45 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5110, 4983, 10181

Auto

13.9 31%

Teleop

26.3 58%

Endgame

4.8 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5247, 5560, 9542

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5247, 5560, 9542

Auto

6.6 40%

Teleop

12.5 76%

Endgame

-2.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45pts

Blue projected score16.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.4
Score range: 0–62
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 93.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.1Season APEX131.1

13.9Auto6.6

26.3Teleop12.5

4.8Endgame-2.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	21
teleop	52	12
endgame	11	20
foul	0	0
total	77	53

Result

Final score

77 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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