FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.97 – 69.53

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 80.8 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420.6 ±10.5

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 48.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 14Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 30.57Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.7 ±11.7

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 14Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6569Gladiators

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 24.29Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 31.24Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5086, 6122, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5086, 6122, 3602

Auto

20.8 22%

Teleop

60.1 65%

Endgame

12.1 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3767, 6569, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3767, 6569, 4398

Auto

19.3 28%

Teleop

31.7 46%

Endgame

18.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93pts

Blue projected score69.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.4
Score range: 55–108
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 83.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420.6Season APEX336.7

20.8Auto19.3

60.1Teleop31.7

12.1Endgame18.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	39
teleop	84	84
endgame	39	31
foul	0	0
total	170	154

Result

Final score

170 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 80.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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