FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.04 – 70.71

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±12.2

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 26.83Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 44.16Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 22.05Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.9 ±13.3

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 33.07Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 30.19Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 7.45Rank 35Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5247, 3618, 7855

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5247, 3618, 7855

Auto

18.3 20%

Teleop

51.6 56%

Endgame

22.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6087, 10614, 9176

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6087, 10614, 9176

Auto

15.0 22%

Teleop

20.3 30%

Endgame

32.0 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93pts

Blue projected score70.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.3
Score range: 52–112
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 105.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.8Season APEX145.9

18.3Auto15

51.6Teleop20.3

22.4Endgame32

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	23
teleop	48	36
endgame	27	26
foul	0	0
total	100	85

Result

Final score

100 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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