FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

71.32 – 57.6

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

82 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.7 ±13.9

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 50.86Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 6Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.8 ±10.7

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX -Rank 30Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 11.43Rank 35Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 31.71Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11440, 5509, 4835

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11440, 5509, 4835

Auto

18.6 26%

Teleop

42.9 60%

Endgame

9.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 9176, 7598

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9771, 9176, 7598

Auto

19.5 34%

Teleop

28.4 49%

Endgame

9.8 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.3pts

Blue projected score57.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.7
Score range: 42–87
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 86.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.7Season APEX356.8

14.3Auto15.1

35.7Teleop21.1

6.9Endgame6.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	20
teleop	38	13
endgame	29	15
foul	0	0
total	82	48

Result

Final score

82 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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