FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.46 – 175.52

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.3 ±12.8

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 4.83Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 44.06Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 16.57Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.4 ±11.1

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 96.51Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 35.51Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 43.5Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11440, 3602, 5183

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11440, 3602, 5183

Auto

13.0 19%

Teleop

37.5 55%

Endgame

17.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5534, 10614, 5110

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5534, 10614, 5110

Auto

27.9 16%

Teleop

101.1 58%

Endgame

45.0 26%

Strengths

· 5534 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.5pts

Blue projected score175.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.1
Score range: 46–195
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 104.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.3Season APEX274.4

13Auto27.9

37.5Teleop101.1

17.6Endgame45

29Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	29
teleop	18	75
endgame	31	27
foul	0	0
total	57	131

Result

Final score

57 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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