FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.26 – 121.12

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.9 ±13.3

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 29.11Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 21.72Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 21.43Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.9 ±11.7

7808Kalkaska Dragoneers

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 26.02Rank 20Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 55.66Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 39.44Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5509, 11466, 7855

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5509, 11466, 7855

Auto

11.0 16%

Teleop

36.7 54%

Endgame

19.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7808, 3767, 3618

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7808, 3767, 3618

Auto

18.5 15%

Teleop

74.4 62%

Endgame

27.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.3pts

Blue projected score121.1pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.9
Score range: 53–140
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 103.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.9Season APEX256.9

11Auto18.5

36.7Teleop74.4

19.8Endgame27.2

33Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	38
teleop	25	114
endgame	40	25
foul	15	0
total	101	177

Result

Final score

101 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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