FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.65 – 115.05

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.5 ±13.3

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 28Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 16.53Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7782Wolverine Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 50.12Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.9 ±11.7

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 39.22Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 16.37Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 59.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5509, 5183, 7782

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5509, 5183, 7782

Auto

14.7 16%

Teleop

46.2 50%

Endgame

30.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3602, 11466, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3602, 11466, 4398

Auto

23.9 21%

Teleop

71.9 62%

Endgame

19.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.7pts

Blue projected score115.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.4
Score range: 76–134
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 105.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.5Season APEX313.9

14.7Auto23.9

46.2Teleop71.9

30.7Endgame19.7

58Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	48
teleop	41	70
endgame	37	40
foul	0	0
total	101	158

Result

Final score

101 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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