FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.27 – 106.25

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 16 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.3 ±13.3

10181ProtoWarriors

Season APEX 62Event APEX 6.77Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 4.4Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10613AEA Alterbots

Season APEX 41Event APEX 21.1Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±10.5

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 18.59Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 66.86Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 20.8Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10181, 8611, 10613

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10181, 8611, 10613

Auto

8.7 28%

Teleop

21.6 69%

Endgame

0.8 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 3688, 7855

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 3688, 7855

Auto

24.8 23%

Teleop

51.6 48%

Endgame

30.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.3pts

Blue projected score106.3pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74
Score range: 13–125
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 105.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.3Season APEX285.3

8.7Auto24.8

21.6Teleop51.6

0.8Endgame30.3

44Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	8
teleop	19	64
endgame	20	29
foul	15	0
total	59	101

Result

Final score

59 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 16 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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