FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.8 – 84.47

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.5 ±11.2

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 5.18Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 60.64Rank 8Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 116.98Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.5 ±12.2

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 34.83Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 10.33Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 39.31Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11440, 1711, 5086

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11440, 1711, 5086

Auto

36.4 20%

Teleop

113.0 62%

Endgame

33.6 18%

Strengths

· 5086 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3618, 4835, 5110

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3618, 4835, 5110

Auto

13.5 16%

Teleop

42.6 51%

Endgame

28.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.8pts

Blue projected score84.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.3
Score range: 65–202
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 104.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.5Season APEX213.5

36.4Auto13.5

113Teleop42.6

33.6Endgame28

17Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	29
teleop	120	70
endgame	45	35
foul	0	0
total	199	134

Result

Final score

199 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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