FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.21 – 91.1

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.6 ±11.7

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 18.57Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 85.64Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 98Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.8 ±12.2

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 21.74Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 60.37Rank 8Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 8.99Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11466, 7790, 5534

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11466, 7790, 5534

Auto

33.3 17%

Teleop

122.9 62%

Endgame

43.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7855, 1711, 9759

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7855, 1711, 9759

Auto

15.5 17%

Teleop

48.3 54%

Endgame

26.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.2pts

Blue projected score91.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.1
Score range: 70–223
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 115.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.6Season APEX188.8

33.3Auto15.5

122.9Teleop48.3

43.6Endgame26.2

33Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	21
teleop	120	44
endgame	22	25
foul	0	0
total	171	90

Result

Final score

171 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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