FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.79 – 249.31

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135.8 ±13.3

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 9.19Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7808Kalkaska Dragoneers

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 28.32Rank 20Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 33.28Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.9 ±10.7

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 92.91Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 145.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 11.26Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9759, 7808, 7155

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9759, 7808, 7155

Auto

13.7 19%

Teleop

41.9 59%

Endgame

15.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5534, 5193, 5560

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5534, 5193, 5560

Auto

29.7 12%

Teleop

159.9 65%

Endgame

54.9 22%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.8pts

Blue projected score249.3pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -178.5
Score range: 52–268
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 104.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135.8Season APEX484.9

13.7Auto29.7

41.9Teleop159.9

15.6Endgame54.9

35Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	55
teleop	24	185
endgame	12	55
foul	0	0
total	50	295

Result

Final score

50 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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