FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.39 – 108.57

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.2 ±11.1

10181ProtoWarriors

Season APEX 62Event APEX 9.27Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 35.74Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 20.38Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.7 ±12.8

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 65.87Rank 8Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 22.69Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 20.01Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10181, 10614, 7598

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10181, 10614, 7598

Auto

20.5 32%

Teleop

36.5 56%

Endgame

7.9 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1711, 11466, 5183

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1711, 11466, 5183

Auto

18.3 17%

Teleop

67.5 62%

Endgame

23.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.4pts

Blue projected score108.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.2
Score range: 46–128
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 105.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.2Season APEX190.7

20.5Auto18.3

36.5Teleop67.5

7.9Endgame23.9

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	22
teleop	10	34
endgame	28	11
foul	0	0
total	52	67

Result

Final score

52 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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