FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.98 – 99.81

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.4 ±12.4

904D Cubed

Season APEX 18.6Event APEX -0.65Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 95.16Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 12.47Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.6 ±12.2

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 9.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 31.59Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 58.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 904, 5534, 4835

/ 100 compat

Projected

107 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 904, 5534, 4835

Auto

16.5 15%

Teleop

71.3 67%

Endgame

19.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5560, 7155, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5560, 7155, 4398

Auto

27.3 28%

Teleop

55.7 57%

Endgame

15.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107pts

Blue projected score99.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.2
Score range: 81–126
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 106.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.4Season APEX218.6

16.5Auto27.3

71.3Teleop55.7

19.3Endgame15.1

55Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	9
teleop	54	60
endgame	20	40
foul	0	0
total	87	109

Result

Final score

87 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 14.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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