FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.15 – 59.95

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137 ±13.3

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 11.61Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 7.16Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7808Kalkaska Dragoneers

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 29.38Rank 20Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.7 ±12.2

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 23.6Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 4.25Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 32.1Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6122, 11440, 7808

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6122, 11440, 7808

Auto

11.8 23%

Teleop

24.1 48%

Endgame

14.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4983, 9759, 3618

/ 100 compat

Projected

60 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4983, 9759, 3618

Auto

1.2 2%

Teleop

42.2 72%

Endgame

15.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.2pts

Blue projected score60pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.8
Score range: 29–79
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 106.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137Season APEX197.7

11.8Auto1.2

24.1Teleop42.2

14.4Endgame15.2

33Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	17
teleop	16	64
endgame	8	19
foul	0	0
total	37	100

Result

Final score

37 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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