FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.88 – 233.17

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.4 ±11.7

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 114.45Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 39.5Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 8.93Rank 35Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.8 ±11.7

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 144.6Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 76.47Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6569Gladiators

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 12.1Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5086, 5110, 9176

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5086, 5110, 9176

Auto

30.9 19%

Teleop

87.1 55%

Endgame

41.7 26%

Strengths

· 5086 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5193, 7790, 6569

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5193, 7790, 6569

Auto

35.5 15%

Teleop

141.3 60%

Endgame

57.3 24%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.9pts

Blue projected score233.2pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.3
Score range: 144–252
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 104.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.4Season APEX454.8

30.9Auto35.5

87.1Teleop141.3

41.7Endgame57.3

103Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	50
teleop	70	110
endgame	69	83
foul	0	0
total	170	243

Result

Final score

170 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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