FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.43 – 57.88

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.5 ±13.3

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 26.2Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 36.12Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 27.11Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.7 ±12.8

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 8.97Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 44.88Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 4.03Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11466, 7155, 5247

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11466, 7155, 5247

Auto

23.2 26%

Teleop

54.9 61%

Endgame

12.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5560, 3602, 8611

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5560, 3602, 8611

Auto

13.0 24%

Teleop

38.6 70%

Endgame

3.6 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.4pts

Blue projected score57.9pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.6
Score range: 39–108
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 105.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.5Season APEX216.7

23.2Auto13

54.9Teleop38.6

12.3Endgame3.6

22Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	4
teleop	20	42
endgame	5	19
foul	0	0
total	55	65

Result

Final score

55 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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