FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.47 – 40.18

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.2 ±11.2

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 11.31Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 137.44Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 42.72Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 109.1 ±13.9

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 11.11Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

904D Cubed

Season APEX 18.6Event APEX -2.61Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 31.68Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8611, 5193, 3618

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8611, 5193, 3618

Auto

29.6 16%

Teleop

119.6 64%

Endgame

39.1 21%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5183, 904, 6087

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5183, 904, 6087

Auto

10.1 26%

Teleop

9.2 24%

Endgame

19.8 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.5pts

Blue projected score40.2pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 151.3
Score range: 19–212
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 115.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.2Season APEX109.1

29.6Auto10.1

119.6Teleop9.2

39.1Endgame19.8

48Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	5
teleop	130	11
endgame	12	7
foul	0	0
total	152	23

Result

Final score

152 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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