FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.24 – 88.38

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.8 ±12.7

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 0.87Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 34.89Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 11.48Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.3 ±12.7

904D Cubed

Season APEX 18.6Event APEX -9.11Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 68.54Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 28.95Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9759, 5110, 6122

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9759, 5110, 6122

Auto

13.9 29%

Teleop

12.7 27%

Endgame

20.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 904, 7790, 10614

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 904, 7790, 10614

Auto

17.0 19%

Teleop

49.7 56%

Endgame

22.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.2pts

Blue projected score88.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.1
Score range: 28–107
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 106.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.8Season APEX167.3

13.9Auto17

12.7Teleop49.7

20.9Endgame22.2

113Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	28
teleop	25	88
endgame	24	36
foul	5	0
total	71	152

Result

Final score

71 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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