FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.16 – 29.03

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.7 ±11.7

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 32.36Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 125.01Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 21.79Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.7 ±12.7

10181ProtoWarriors

Season APEX 62Event APEX 5.91Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 26.27Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5504The Loose Connections

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX -3.15Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4983, 5086, 4835

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4983, 5086, 4835

Auto

31.1 17%

Teleop

114.5 64%

Endgame

32.9 18%

Strengths

· 5086 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10181, 7855, 5504

/ 100 compat

Projected

29 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10181, 7855, 5504

Auto

5.1 20%

Teleop

10.3 40%

Endgame

10.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.2pts

Blue projected score29pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.1
Score range: 10–198
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 106.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.7Season APEX126.7

31.1Auto5.1

114.5Teleop10.3

32.9Endgame10.5

33Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	10
teleop	66	9
endgame	22	6
foul	0	0
total	100	25

Result

Final score

100 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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