FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.09 – 175.98

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.3 ±12.8

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 72.64Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 16.84Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 2.61Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.9 ±9.3

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 10.94Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 31.09Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 133.95Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3688, 3537, 9759

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3688, 3537, 9759

Auto

20.0 22%

Teleop

50.5 55%

Endgame

20.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 3602, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

176 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 3602, 5193

Auto

32.4 19%

Teleop

111.1 64%

Endgame

31.2 18%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.1pts

Blue projected score176pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.9
Score range: 73–195
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 104.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.3Season APEX552.9

20Auto32.4

50.5Teleop111.1

20.7Endgame31.2

27Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	52
teleop	27	158
endgame	32	45
foul	0	0
total	79	255

Result

Final score

79 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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