FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.62 – 146.57

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 82.3 ±13.3

5504The Loose Connections

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX -6.87Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

904D Cubed

Season APEX 18.6Event APEX -9.18Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 35.67Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.8 ±11.7

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 126.13Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 22.51Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10181ProtoWarriors

Season APEX 62Event APEX -2.07Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5504, 904, 7155

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5504, 904, 7155

Auto

15.5 72%

Teleop

7.6 35%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5086, 11466, 10181

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5086, 11466, 10181

Auto

24.6 17%

Teleop

93.4 63%

Endgame

30.4 20%

Strengths

· 5086 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.6pts

Blue projected score146.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.9
Score range: 1–166
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 103.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

82.3Season APEX354.8

15.5Auto24.6

7.6Teleop93.4

-1.6Endgame30.4

77Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	27
teleop	14	117
endgame	12	25
foul	0	15
total	43	184

Result

Final score

43 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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