FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.19 – 65.96

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.8 ±13.9

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 20.35Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 28.91Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 28.93Rank 35Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.2 ±13.3

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 12.67Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 25.98Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 27.31Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5183, 4835, 9176

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5183, 4835, 9176

Auto

10.9 14%

Teleop

38.0 47%

Endgame

31.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6122, 5247, 5509

/ 100 compat

Projected

66 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6122, 5247, 5509

Auto

17.3 29%

Teleop

17.3 29%

Endgame

25.8 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.2pts

Blue projected score66pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.2
Score range: 47–97
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 83 vs event baseline 105.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.8Season APEX156.2

10.9Auto17.3

38Teleop17.3

31.3Endgame25.8

95Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	30
teleop	5	19
endgame	9	13
foul	0	0
total	21	62

Result

Final score

21 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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