FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.01 – 158.05

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 23.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±11.2

6569Gladiators

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 4.79Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 39.94Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 82.28Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.2 ±11.6

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 78.77Rank 8Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7782Wolverine Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 41Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 38.28Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6569, 3618, 5534

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6569, 3618, 5534

Auto

13.3 11%

Teleop

82.5 66%

Endgame

29.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1711, 7782, 4983

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1711, 7782, 4983

Auto

26.2 16%

Teleop

109.6 68%

Endgame

25.9 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score158.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31
Score range: 108–177
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 104.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.4Season APEX245.2

13.3Auto26.2

82.5Teleop109.6

29.6Endgame25.9

41Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	28
teleop	95	81
endgame	49	41
foul	0	0
total	166	150

Result

Final score

166 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 23.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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