FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.81 – 91.63

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.3 ±13.3

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 5.24Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10181ProtoWarriors

Season APEX 62Event APEX 7.38Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 29.19Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.8 ±12.2

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 46.13Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10613AEA Alterbots

Season APEX 41Event APEX 26.25Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 19.25Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3537, 10181, 5247

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3537, 10181, 5247

Auto

21.1 52%

Teleop

15.0 37%

Endgame

4.6 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3602, 10613, 4983

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3602, 10613, 4983

Auto

17.3 20%

Teleop

57.0 64%

Endgame

14.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.8pts

Blue projected score91.6pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.8
Score range: 21–113
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 115.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.3Season APEX216.8

21.1Auto17.3

15Teleop57

4.6Endgame14.2

38Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	21
teleop	4	74
endgame	2	12
foul	0	0
total	14	107

Result

Final score

14 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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