FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.5 – 64.42

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.8 ±13.3

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 19.07Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 33.71Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX -5.28Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.1 ±13.3

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 45.26Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 6.76Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 12.4Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7855, 6087, 8611

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7855, 6087, 8611

Auto

5.9 14%

Teleop

14.5 34%

Endgame

22.5 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5110, 5560, 11440

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5110, 5560, 11440

Auto

16.8 28%

Teleop

25.8 43%

Endgame

18.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.5pts

Blue projected score64.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.9
Score range: 29–83
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 105.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.8Season APEX115.1

5.9Auto16.8

14.5Teleop25.8

22.5Endgame18

22Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	29	23
endgame	25	15
foul	0	0
total	65	51

Result

Final score

65 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 15.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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