FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.48 – 215.28

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.3 ±11.2

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 35.34Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 2.21Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 21.93Rank 30Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.9 ±11.2

9542Technodogs

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 24.2Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 69.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 121.11Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3602, 9759, 9771

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3602, 9759, 9771

Auto

16.8 30%

Teleop

21.2 38%

Endgame

17.1 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9542, 3688, 5086

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9542, 3688, 5086

Auto

33.3 15%

Teleop

125.9 58%

Endgame

56.7 26%

Strengths

· 5086 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.5pts

Blue projected score215.3pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155.8
Score range: 40–234
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 104.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.3Season APEX376.9

16.8Auto33.3

21.2Teleop125.9

17.1Endgame56.7

51Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	57
teleop	35	130
endgame	5	47
foul	0	5
total	49	239

Result

Final score

49 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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