FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.72 – 59.79

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.9 ±11.7

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 124.59Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 5.31Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 10.82Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.8 ±13.3

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 21.06Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 24.54Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 14.19Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5193, 3537, 10614

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5193, 3537, 10614

Auto

17.6 13%

Teleop

93.0 67%

Endgame

28.1 20%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11466, 4835, 6122

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11466, 4835, 6122

Auto

17.8 28%

Teleop

34.6 54%

Endgame

12.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.7pts

Blue projected score59.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.9
Score range: 41–160
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 103.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.9Season APEX179.8

17.6Auto17.8

93Teleop34.6

28.1Endgame12.1

31Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	7
teleop	133	33
endgame	48	17
foul	0	0
total	217	57

Result

Final score

217 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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