FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.84 – 114.45

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.6 ±12.8

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 77.61Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 16.3Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 38.93Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.7 ±12.7

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 29.99Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 77.42Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10181ProtoWarriors

Season APEX 62Event APEX 7.04Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4398, 8611, 5509

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4398, 8611, 5509

Auto

25.6 21%

Teleop

62.6 50%

Endgame

35.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6087, 7790, 10181

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6087, 7790, 10181

Auto

18.0 17%

Teleop

58.1 53%

Endgame

32.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.8pts

Blue projected score114.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.4
Score range: 96–151
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.6Season APEX216.7

25.6Auto18

62.6Teleop58.1

35.8Endgame32.9

121Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	25
teleop	13	49
endgame	14	36
foul	0	5
total	43	115

Result

Final score

43 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 45.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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