FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.07 – 112.88

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.1 ±11.1

7782Wolverine Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 47.04Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 115.13Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 15.9Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.2 ±12.8

9542Technodogs

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 27.34Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 56.48Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 29.06Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7782, 5086, 10614

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7782, 5086, 10614

Auto

33.5 18%

Teleop

104.3 58%

Endgame

43.4 24%

Strengths

· 5086 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9542, 3688, 5183

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9542, 3688, 5183

Auto

9.6 8%

Teleop

65.5 57%

Endgame

39.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.1pts

Blue projected score112.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.2
Score range: 94–197
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 102.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.1Season APEX175.2

33.5Auto9.6

104.3Teleop65.5

43.4Endgame39.4

40Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	19
teleop	129	51
endgame	41	50
foul	0	0
total	189	120

Result

Final score

189 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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