FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.87 – 41.86

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

50 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.4 ±10.5

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 20.96Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10181ProtoWarriors

Season APEX 62Event APEX 11.7Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 30.21Rank 30Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.2 ±13.9

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 20.92Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 18.47Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 2.47Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3618, 10181, 9771

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3618, 10181, 9771

Auto

5.3 9%

Teleop

48.8 81%

Endgame

5.8 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8611, 4835, 9759

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8611, 4835, 9759

Auto

8.5 21%

Teleop

22.5 54%

Endgame

10.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.9pts

Blue projected score41.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21
Score range: 23–82
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 79 vs event baseline 104.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.4Season APEX180.2

5.3Auto8.5

48.8Teleop22.5

5.8Endgame10.4

46Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	11
teleop	17	11
endgame	22	7
foul	0	0
total	50	29

Result

Final score

50 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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