FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.48 – 63.06

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.8 ±11.2

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 89.72Rank 8Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5504The Loose Connections

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX -7.53Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 124.29Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 132.8 ±13.9

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 32.6Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 23.2Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 7.26Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1711, 5504, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1711, 5504, 5193

Auto

33.3 16%

Teleop

147.1 72%

Endgame

25.2 12%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5509, 6087, 5560

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5509, 6087, 5560

Auto

19.7 33%

Teleop

18.8 32%

Endgame

21.1 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.5pts

Blue projected score63.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.4
Score range: 44–225
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.8Season APEX132.8

33.3Auto19.7

147.1Teleop18.8

25.2Endgame21.1

64Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	11
teleop	104	17
endgame	53	42
foul	0	30
total	196	100

Result

Final score

196 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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