FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.61 – 135.14

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.7 ±13.3

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 10.42Rank 35Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 13.14Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7782Wolverine Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 50.05Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.4 ±10.5

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 17Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 39.39Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 78.75Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9176, 5560, 7782

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9176, 5560, 7782

Auto

15.4 21%

Teleop

34.8 48%

Endgame

22.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 5110, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 5110, 4398

Auto

34.6 26%

Teleop

60.9 45%

Endgame

39.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.6pts

Blue projected score135.1pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.5
Score range: 53–156
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 115.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.7Season APEX357.4

15.4Auto34.6

34.8Teleop60.9

22.8Endgame39.9

7Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	42
teleop	28	46
endgame	1	23
foul	0	0
total	40	111

Result

Final score

40 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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