FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

73.25 – 66.62

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

105 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.9 ±12.2

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 22.56Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 41.69Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 9Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.9 ±12.7

7782Wolverine Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 44.26Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 14.16Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10613AEA Alterbots

Season APEX 41Event APEX 8.2Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11440, 3767, 7855

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11440, 3767, 7855

Auto

19.0 26%

Teleop

37.8 53%

Endgame

14.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7782, 6122, 10613

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7782, 6122, 10613

Auto

14.6 22%

Teleop

36.3 54%

Endgame

16.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.3pts

Blue projected score66.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.6
Score range: 48–92
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 104.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.9Season APEX189.9

19Auto14.6

37.8Teleop36.3

14.9Endgame16.4

29Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	23
teleop	55	58
endgame	39	10
foul	0	0
total	105	91

Result

Final score

105 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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