FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.67 – 19.49

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.6 ±11.7

9542Technodogs

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 15.17Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 13.39Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 75.11Rank 8Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.1 ±13.9

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX -15.24Rank 35Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 19.29Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 15.44Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9542, 3618, 1711

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9542, 3618, 1711

Auto

18.9 18%

Teleop

60.1 58%

Endgame

25.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9176, 8611, 11466

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9176, 8611, 11466

Auto

6.3 32%

Teleop

29.9 100%

Endgame

-16.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.7pts

Blue projected score19.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.2
Score range: 1–122
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 100.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.6Season APEX167.1

18.9Auto6.3

60.1Teleop29.9

25.2Endgame-16.7

31Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	4
teleop	107	31
endgame	33	32
foul	0	0
total	159	67

Result

Final score

159 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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