FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 105.67

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 112.9 ±13.3

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 10.68Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6122Potential Energy

Season APEX 61Event APEX 9.32Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

904D Cubed

Season APEX 18.6Event APEX -22.09Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.1 ±11

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 51.03Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10181ProtoWarriors

Season APEX 62Event APEX 10.18Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 44.46Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5560, 6122, 904

/ 100 compat

Projected

-2.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5560, 6122, 904

Auto

5.7 0%

Teleop

-11.9 100%

Endgame

5.7 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3688, 10181, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3688, 10181, 3602

Auto

24.0 23%

Teleop

47.0 45%

Endgame

32.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-2.1pts

Blue projected score105.7pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.7
Score range: -18–124
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 101.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

112.9Season APEX264.1

5.7Auto24

-11.9Teleop47

5.7Endgame32.3

113Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	13	80
endgame	5	23
foul	0	0
total	34	120

Result

Final score

34 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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