FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.61 – 79.97

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.1 ±12.4

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -10.17Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 82.26Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5504The Loose Connections

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX -1.48Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249 ±11.7

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 28.75Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 35.05Rank 30Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 16.17Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3537, 5534, 5504

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3537, 5534, 5504

Auto

17.2 24%

Teleop

49.4 70%

Endgame

4.1 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5509, 9771, 5110

/ 100 compat

Projected

80 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5509, 9771, 5110

Auto

21.1 26%

Teleop

46.3 57%

Endgame

13.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.6pts

Blue projected score80pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.4
Score range: 53–98
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 102.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.1Season APEX249

17.2Auto21.1

49.4Teleop46.3

4.1Endgame13.5

119Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	39	28
endgame	4	50
foul	0	15
total	61	107

Result

Final score

61 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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