FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.96 – 148.25

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316 ±11.2

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 11.54Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 11.98Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 41.44Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.8 ±11.1

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 111.87Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX -4.09Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 40.47Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5183, 7598, 3767

/ 100 compat

Projected

65 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5183, 7598, 3767

Auto

18.5 29%

Teleop

27.8 43%

Endgame

18.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5193, 7855, 4983

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5193, 7855, 4983

Auto

14.7 10%

Teleop

110.9 75%

Endgame

22.8 15%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65pts

Blue projected score148.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.3
Score range: 47–166
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 99.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316Season APEX374.8

18.5Auto14.7

27.8Teleop110.9

18.2Endgame22.8

56Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	22
teleop	50	146
endgame	25	50
foul	0	5
total	101	223

Result

Final score

101 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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