FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.83 – 119.23

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 114.1 ±13.3

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 25.31Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 26.86Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10613AEA Alterbots

Season APEX 41Event APEX 17.66Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.7 ±12.1

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 57.97Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7782Wolverine Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 29.01Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 32.25Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10614, 11440, 10613

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10614, 11440, 10613

Auto

11.9 17%

Teleop

31.7 45%

Endgame

26.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7790, 7782, 7155

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7790, 7782, 7155

Auto

29.5 25%

Teleop

82.8 70%

Endgame

5.4 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.8pts

Blue projected score119.2pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.4
Score range: 52–137
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 98.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

114.1Season APEX232.7

11.9Auto29.5

31.7Teleop82.8

26.5Endgame5.4

93Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	25
teleop	27	106
endgame	14	55
foul	0	0
total	55	186

Result

Final score

55 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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