FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.27 – 148.51

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.3 ±13.9

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 17.05Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 13.25Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6569Gladiators

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 21.97Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.6 ±12.8

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 21.82Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 74.75Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7808Kalkaska Dragoneers

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 51.94Rank 20Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5247, 9759, 6569

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5247, 9759, 6569

Auto

12.6 24%

Teleop

24.1 46%

Endgame

16.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4835, 4398, 7808

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4835, 4398, 7808

Auto

26.8 18%

Teleop

79.9 54%

Endgame

40.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.3pts

Blue projected score148.5pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.2
Score range: 34–167
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 99.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.3Season APEX259.6

12.6Auto26.8

24.1Teleop79.9

16Endgame40.4

50Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	32
teleop	17	71
endgame	11	31
foul	0	0
total	39	134

Result

Final score

39 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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