FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.95 – 77.15

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.9 ±12.2

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 10.18Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5560Central Lake Trobotics

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 16.16Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 44.61Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121.6 ±13.3

10613AEA Alterbots

Season APEX 41Event APEX 17.27Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 32.91Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 26.97Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3618, 5560, 7790

/ 100 compat

Projected

71 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3618, 5560, 7790

Auto

8.0 12%

Teleop

59.1 87%

Endgame

1.2 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10613, 7155, 5183

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10613, 7155, 5183

Auto

16.4 21%

Teleop

58.7 76%

Endgame

2.0 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71pts

Blue projected score77.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.2
Score range: 53–95
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 100.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.9Season APEX121.6

8Auto16.4

59.1Teleop58.7

1.2Endgame2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	17
teleop	71	34
endgame	23	12
foul	0	0
total	111	63

Result

Final score

111 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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