FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.67 – 34.9

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.3 ±13.9

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 26.85Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 33.87Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9176Greenspire Steel Sturgeons

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX -4.05Rank 35Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.4 ±13.3

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -14.6Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4983IronBots

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 26.87Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 22.63Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9759, 11440, 9176

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9759, 11440, 9176

Auto

9.2 16%

Teleop

22.0 39%

Endgame

25.4 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3537, 4983, 5509

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3537, 4983, 5509

Auto

6.2 18%

Teleop

26.2 74%

Endgame

2.9 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.7pts

Blue projected score34.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.8
Score range: 16–76
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 104.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.3Season APEX144.4

9.2Auto6.2

22Teleop26.2

25.4Endgame2.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	17
teleop	9	51
endgame	7	14
foul	0	0
total	21	82

Result

Final score

21 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 41.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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