FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

83.22 – 36

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 74.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.3 ±11.7

3618Petoskey Paladins

Season APEX 92.6Event APEX 29.95Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

904D Cubed

Season APEX 18.6Event APEX -2.3Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3602RoboMos

Season APEX 118.1Event APEX 55.57Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.8 ±11.2

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 12.33Rank 8Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 12.2Rank 30Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5247Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 11.47Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3618, 904, 3602

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3618, 904, 3602

Auto

14.3 17%

Teleop

61.6 74%

Endgame

7.5 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1711, 9771, 5247

/ 100 compat

Projected

36 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1711, 9771, 5247

Auto

17.1 47%

Teleop

5.9 16%

Endgame

13.7 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.2pts

Blue projected score36pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.2
Score range: 19–100
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 94.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.3Season APEX292.8

14.3Auto17.1

61.6Teleop5.9

7.5Endgame13.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	38
teleop	24	103
endgame	17	14
foul	5	0
total	53	155

Result

Final score

53 – 155

Prediction missed · off by 74.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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