FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.92 – 71.72

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143 ±13.9

10613AEA Alterbots

Season APEX 41Event APEX 12.2Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6087Cybertronic Lancers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 6.57Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11466Mega-CAPs

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 44.15Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.5 ±12.4

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 44.15Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5183Devil Bots

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 6.57Rank 32Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 21Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10613, 6087, 11466

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10613, 6087, 11466

Auto

11.5 18%

Teleop

46.3 73%

Endgame

5.8 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5534, 5183, 9759

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5534, 5183, 9759

Auto

16.4 23%

Teleop

42.4 58%

Endgame

14.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.9pts

Blue projected score71.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.8
Score range: 46–89
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 94.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143Season APEX263.5

11.5Auto16.4

46.3Teleop42.4

5.8Endgame14

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	11
teleop	35	77
endgame	15	40
foul	0	0
total	65	128

Result

Final score

65 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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