FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 92.05

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 93 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151.6 ±12.2

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX -7.51Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5504The Loose Connections

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX -2.96Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 9.79Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.5 ±11.7

7155The Robotic Rangers

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 36.72Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 41.55Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11440Casman EObots

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 13.78Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10614, 5504, 3688

/ 100 compat

Projected

-0.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10614, 5504, 3688

Auto

-0.2 0%

Teleop

0.7 100%

Endgame

-0.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7155, 5193, 11440

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7155, 5193, 11440

Auto

11.2 12%

Teleop

68.1 74%

Endgame

12.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-0.7pts

Blue projected score92.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92
Score range: -16–108
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 90.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151.6Season APEX344.5

-0.2Auto11.2

0.7Teleop68.1

-0.4Endgame12.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	36
teleop	50	127
endgame	20	24
foul	0	0
total	91	187

Result

Final score

91 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 93 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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