FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.97 – 43.21

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.4 ±12.7

7808Kalkaska Dragoneers

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 13.4Rank 20Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7855Chronic Robophobia

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 25.71Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7790Baywatch Robotics

Season APEX 104Event APEX 48.86Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.1 ±13.3

8611Cyber Patriots

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 43.43Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7782Wolverine Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 4.5Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3537Delta Force

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -4.72Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7808, 7855, 7790

/ 100 compat

Projected

88 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7808, 7855, 7790

Auto

16.6 19%

Teleop

51.0 58%

Endgame

20.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8611, 7782, 3537

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8611, 7782, 3537

Auto

4.0 9%

Teleop

42.6 98%

Endgame

-3.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88pts

Blue projected score43.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.8
Score range: 27–104
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 90.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.4Season APEX191.1

16.6Auto4

51Teleop42.6

20.4Endgame-3.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	20
teleop	78	33
endgame	24	6
foul	5	0
total	117	59

Result

Final score

117 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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