FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.21 – 39.34

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±12.8

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 73.01Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7808Kalkaska Dragoneers

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 26.38Rank 20Record 5-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6569Gladiators

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 15.82Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.8 ±13.9

5504The Loose Connections

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 6.9Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9542Technodogs

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 13.67Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4835Junkyard Dawgs

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 18.77Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3688, 7808, 6569

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3688, 7808, 6569

Auto

16.8 15%

Teleop

55.4 48%

Endgame

43.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5504, 9542, 4835

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5504, 9542, 4835

Auto

13.3 34%

Teleop

13.7 35%

Endgame

11.8 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.2pts

Blue projected score39.3pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.9
Score range: 18–136
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 115.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.1Season APEX141.8

16.8Auto13.3

55.4Teleop13.7

43.3Endgame11.8

16Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	8
teleop	37	13
endgame	31	0
foul	0	0
total	85	21

Result

Final score

85 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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