FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

278.65 – 203.91

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 68.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.5 ±9.9

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 116.05Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 21.6Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 141Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.6 ±9.3

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 30.04Rank 30Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 96.32Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 77.55Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5086, 10614, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5086, 10614, 5193

Auto

56.8 21%

Teleop

160.4 58%

Endgame

59.0 21%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 5534, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9771, 5534, 4398

Auto

43.0 21%

Teleop

116.3 57%

Endgame

43.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score278.7pts

Blue projected score203.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.7
Score range: 183–300
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.5Season APEX467.6

56.8Auto43

160.4Teleop116.3

59Endgame43.4

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	45
teleop	99	124
endgame	18	73
foul	0	0
total	180	242

Result

Final score

180 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 68.4 pts

Match videos

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