FIM District Traverse City Event presented by Cone Drive

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.25 – 202.54

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 49.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.5 ±9.9

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 119.52Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 25.18Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5193Pantheon

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 144.55Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.6 ±9.3

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 29.92Rank 30Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 95.45Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4398Gladiators

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 77.17Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5086, 10614, 5193

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5086, 10614, 5193

Auto

55.9 20%

Teleop

166.8 58%

Endgame

63.7 22%

Strengths

· 5193 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 5534, 4398

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9771, 5534, 4398

Auto

42.3 21%

Teleop

115.6 57%

Endgame

43.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score289.3pts

Blue projected score202.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.7
Score range: 183–309
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 113.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.5Season APEX467.6

55.9Auto42.3

166.8Teleop115.6

63.7Endgame43.3

11Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	49
teleop	114	122
endgame	25	44
foul	0	0
total	202	215

Result

Final score

202 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 49.9 pts

Match videos

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