FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

314.94 – 187.7

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 127.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.9 ±9.9

10652Mechanical MacGyvers

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 27.39Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 137.95Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 149.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272 ±12.7

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 98.28Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 16.4Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 73.02Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10652, 1498, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10652, 1498, 9245

Auto

73.2 24%

Teleop

165.0 53%

Endgame

72.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8728, 10665, 5860

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8728, 10665, 5860

Auto

31.9 17%

Teleop

104.3 57%

Endgame

46.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score314.9pts

Blue projected score187.7pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.2
Score range: 154–349
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 191.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.9Season APEX272

73.2Auto31.9

165Teleop104.3

72.4Endgame46.2

35Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	25
teleop	66	15
endgame	33	16
foul	10	0
total	192	56

Result

Final score

192 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 127.3 pts

Match videos

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