FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.86 – 197.62

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.2 ±11.6

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 46.53Rank 12Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 38.18Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 67.15Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272 ±12.7

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 100.99Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 19.85Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 76.78Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5531, 5436, 7188

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5531, 5436, 7188

Auto

31.8 22%

Teleop

63.1 43%

Endgame

51.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8728, 10665, 5860

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8728, 10665, 5860

Auto

30.7 16%

Teleop

110.8 58%

Endgame

50.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.9pts

Blue projected score197.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.8
Score range: 118–232
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 187.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.2Season APEX272

31.8Auto30.7

63.1Teleop110.8

51Endgame50.1

0Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	38
teleop	56	64
endgame	25	32
foul	0	0
total	107	134

Result

Final score

107 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Match videos

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